Mike Trout: The Best Ever?
Take a moment and think to yourself, "Is Mike Trout the greatest player to ever live?" While the answer to that question may be a "no" in many people's opinion, the answer could very quickly change over the next few years.
Mike Trout made his Major League debut in 2011, just shy of his 20th birthday. While his first season was underwhelming to say the least, he still showed some signs of stardom within himself. It wasn't until the following year, when Mike Trout became the Mike Trout we all know today, where he batted .326/.399/.564 with 30 home runs and 49 stolen bases in just 139 games. What a season, right? Since then, he has only gotten better, and if the trend continues, then who knows what Mr. Trout could do.
Let's hop into the "Why Mike Trout could become the best ever" talk. First off, let me begin by saying that Trout is on a pace that not many players have been on, and in some instances, no other player has ever been on. Let's begin.
Since 1920, which denotes the beginning of the live-ball era, only four players have a better OPS+ through their first seven seasons than Mike Trout. Before I mention the guys ahead of him, let me give you a brief understanding of OPS+. OPS+ (On-Base Plus Slugging Plus) is simply OPS but with league and ballpark adjustments on it, so you can easily compare player to player without any discretion. The OPS+ is then transitioned into a round number, usually around 100, to make it easy for comparison. 100 is average and anything above or below 100 is how much better or worse you are, percentage-wise, compared to the rest of the league.
Okay, okay, back to those "guys" ahead of Trout. Here is the list:
Best OPS+ through first seven seasons:
1. Ted Williams - 196
2. Frank Thomas - 182
3. Mickey Mantle - 174
4. Lou Gehrig - 174
5. Mike Trout - 172
I don't have to tell you how great those players in front of him were, but I will tell you that all four of them were first-ballot Hall of Famers. A note of importance here is the age of these players when they completed their 7th season. Ted Williams was 30, Frank Thomas - 28, Mickey Mantle - 25, Lou Gehrig - 26, and Mike Trout just turned 26 a couple months ago. What does age have to do with it? Let's face it, most players begin to decline in their mid-30s, and Trout got as early of a hot start as you can. Comparing his age to the other four leaves some prodigious optimism for the next eight to 10 years. While we're on the subject of his career up to this point, let's take a look at what else he has done.
wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average), which is another advanced metric, is more widely used and liked than that of OPS+. The reason, of course, is because wOBA takes into account your total offense contribution and then adjusts it to the run environment for that given year. By doing this, we can see any players wOBA from any era. If you're the type of person that is interested in seeing how well a player contributes to run scoring, then this is a stat for you. This statistic also credits the batter for each outcome and doesn't treat all hits or times on base the same, because they aren't. OBP assumes all are the same and SLG says that a single and a home run are equal, where as, a home run is actually worth roughly 2.3 times more than that of a single, not 4 times more. Enough of the stat lessons, that can be saved for another time.
This wont be a leaders list, but I will show you where Trout stacks up among the greats in their first seven seasons in regards to wOBA:
Willie Mays - .415
Mike Trout - .412
Hank Aaron - .399
Ken Griffey Jr - .391
Barry Bonds - .382
Moving on, WAR (Wins Above Replacement) has been around for a few years, and is now catching mainstream within the baseball industry. WAR is complicated, but in Layman's terms, it is a player's total contribution to his team (and defensively if you use FanGraph's version) above what the very average replacement player would be for that player, and it is then calculated into how many wins, positive or negative, you are above that typical replacement. Instead of using a player's “first seven seasons" for these, we will go ahead and view it from an age standpoint. Trout, who just completed his age 25 season (how old you are on June 30 of a given season), is on yet another historic pace when it comes to WAR. The following list shows you the top five players in WAR through their age 25 season:
1. Ty Cobb - 55.8
2. Mike Trout - 55.2
3. Mickey Mantle - 52.1
4. Rogers Hornsby - 46.9
5. Alex Rodriguez - 46.3
Once again, we notice Trout's name among some of the all-time greats. "Okay, okay, so he ranks up there with a bunch of old timers, the game is totally different from then!" I hear you select few loud and clear. Here's your list of players with the highest WAR since 2009:
1. Mike Trout - 55.3
2. Robinson Cano - 55.1
3. Adrian Beltre - 52.8
4. Joey Votto - 51.5
5. Miguel Cabrera - 47.9
There's a great group of guys right there, all who will be Hall of Famer's someday. Oh, and I forgot to mention, Mike Trout didn't play his first Major League game until 2011 and didn't play a full season until 2012.
I understand that not every person reading this is going to be intrigued by the advanced metrics that seem to be taking over baseball. Some people just want to stick to the good ole' batting average and RBI and call it a day. I respect everyone's opinions and views, but I would recommend reading up on some the metrics that are out today. Some of them still need some tweaking to be perfect, but they can tell you a lot if you look at them. With that being said, I'm obviously going to dive into the more simple, easy-to-understand statistics so that everyone can enjoy and walk away with something.
When you compile the list of players in Major League history, who have hit 200 home runs, stolen 150 bases, all while maintaining a .400 OBP or higher in their first seven seasons, you end up with a very, very small list. In fact, you end up with just one player, and that player is Mike Trout. He has embodied the true meaning of an all-around player by hitting for power, using his tremendous speed, and getting on base in many other ways besides hitting the occasional dinger. To add, Trout is also the only player in Major League history to have a slash line of at least .300/.400/.500 with 150 stolen bases through his first seven seasons. Are you intrigued yet? Neither am I, let's continue.
There are many things that Trout has done to distance himself from the competition. Just this past season, Mike Trout recorded his 1,000 hit on his 26th birthday. By doing so, he became the youngest player with at least 1,000 hits and 500 walks since Mickey Mantle. In 2017, Trout played in just 114 games. In just those games, he managed to hit 33 home runs with 22 stolen bases. The only other player in MLB history with 30 home runs and 20 stolen bases in 115 games or fewer was Barry Bonds in 1994.
Building from that, Trout walked 94 times in those 114 games. When you look at the players with 20 stolen bases and 90 or more walks in a season where they played 115 games or less, you get Mike Trout in 2017 and John McGraw, who did it in 1897. That's it. The only two. 120 years apart. I'm not here to nitpick the stats by sorting a couple to find rarities, I'm displaying that even in a shortened season, Trout was still able to put up MVP-type numbers. Had he played 150-160 games, he could've put on one of the best single seasons we've ever seen. Recently completing his 7th season, Trout has a career batting slash of .306/.410/.566. Of all the players in MLB history, just nine others have that slash line or better through their first seven seasons. They are Albert Pujols, Frank Thomas, Ted Williams, Todd Helton, Mickey Mantle, Johnny Mize, Hank Greenberg, Lou Gehrig, and Stan Musial. Seven of those are Hall of Famers, Pujols and Helton are locks, and then you have Mike Trout.
As if that wasn't enough, Trout has won the MVP twice already and has come in second three different times. He is a five time Silver Slugger winner, he's been to six All-Star Games, and has won two All-Star MVP's. When he's on the field, Trout shocks us almost everyday with an electrifying, airborne snag at the wall to bring a home run back, his tantalizing swing and ability to hit the ball to all portions of the diamond, or just the simple smile he displays when he's having fun playing the game or signing autographs for fans.
You've seen a lot of all-time greats right next to Mike Trout's name throughout this whole article. The last thing I want to do, if I haven't provided you with enough, is to show some player comparisons. If it hadn't been for a bum knee and a drinking problem, Mickey Mantle could have been the greatest player to ever live. Still, with all the issues, many claim him to be just that. Ken Griffey Jr. is also another player in that realm, and if it hadn't been for his slew of injuries, then there probably wouldn't be many that disagree. Mike Trout has played in 925 career games. Up to this point, he is comparable to where both Mantle and Jr. stood at that point.
Through 925 career games:
Mike Trout
.306/.410/.566
1,040 hits
201 home runs
165 stolen bases
172 OPS+
Ken Griffey Jr
.301/.381/.536
1,045 hits
192 home runs
92 stolen bases
147 OPS+
Mickey Mantle
.317/.428/.577
1,058 hits
205 home runs
58 stolen bases
174 OPS+
With all of this, there’s still the “fear of the unknown” that we, as baseball fans, need to worry about. We have seen many players have a tremendous first half of their career, only to see it falter in some way after that, leaving us feeling empty inside. So far, we have nothing to tell us that Mike Trout won’t continue his Ruthian pace. If he does continue, then he will be regarded as the greatest ever by many. For baseball’s sake, we need this sheer dominance, and I wouldn’t pick any other guy to be “that guy.”
Mike Trout get's some criticism about not being outgoing enough or for not having any flashy events happen on or off the field. When it comes to Trout, what you see is what you get. He is a big fan of the weather, yes weather, and has even joined the Weather Channel before to report a blizzard. While it might shock some of you, it doesn't to me at all. You see, Trout is easy going, anti-climactic, goes about his business, and just enjoys showing people up with the way he plays. Nothing more and nothing less, no derogatory words or actions, just his skill set.
In this day and age where social media has taken everything by storm, we look for the big, juicy story more than ever. With Mike, you're not going to get that, and I am perfectly okay with that. Instead, you're going to get mediocre articles like this one that talks about the legendary career he's having. He shows up, plays the game of baseball, does it with class, and does it better than anyone else in the game. If you're looking for more, then you're watching the sport for the wrong reason. Mike Trout embodies the word "idol" on and off the field. In 70 years, kids will be reenacting the "Mike Trout Swing" or they'll be running down a fly ball with the aggressiveness just like Mike Trout did.